Club Atletico de MadridVS
Manchester United FCMarketBTTS
Expert PredictionYes
Odds—
ConfidenceHigh
Expert Match Analysis
Atlético de Madrid welcome Manchester United to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano with the two sides arriving in contrasting form. Atlético lost 2-1 at Liverpool on matchday one but have since won four consecutive matches in all competitions, while United opened with a 4-0 victory over Sabah before going winless across their next four.
Simeone’s side have been particularly strong at home, going unbeaten in their last five matches there in all competitions. Their Champions League record against English opposition is less convincing, however, with only two wins from their last 15 European meetings with English clubs.
United have historically found Atlético a difficult opponent. They are still searching for their first victory in this fixture after four meetings, while Atlético have never lost to them. The most recent tie came in the 2021-22 Champions League round of 16, when the Spanish side progressed 2-1 on aggregate.
The visitors’ wider record against Spanish opposition is far healthier, with only one defeat in their last 11 matches, but their current form is a concern. Michael Carrick’s side were held 1-1 by Tottenham at the weekend despite leading late and playing against 10 men, extending their winless run to four.
Atlético prepared with a 2-1 away win at Alavés, where Álex Baena and Julián Álvarez made a significant impact from the bench before Cristian Romero headed in the late winner. Their depth could prove important again against a United side missing several first-team players.
With Atlético scoring consistently at home and United’s European games rarely ending quietly, this should be competitive rather than cagey. United have enough attacking quality to threaten, but Atlético’s stronger recent form and greater defensive stability make the hosts more convincing.